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Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B

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Hens, N., Aerts, M., Shkedy, Z., Kimani, Peter K., Kojouhorova, M., Damme, Pierre van and Beutels, Ph. (2008) Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.136 (No.3). pp. 341-351. doi:10.1017/S0950268807008692

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008692

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Abstract

The objective of this study was to model the age–time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79–84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences
Faculty of Medicine > Warwick Medical School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Hepatitis B -- Mathematical models, Hepatitis B -- Vaccination, Immunization -- Bulgaria -- Case studies
Journal or Publication Title: Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISSN: 0950-2688
Official Date: 2008
Dates:
DateEvent
2008Published
Volume: Vol.136
Number: No.3
Page Range: pp. 341-351
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807008692
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder: Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek—Vlaanderen [Fund for Scientific Research] (FWO), Belgium. Politique scientifique fédérale [Belgian Federal Science Policy Office] (Belspo)
Grant number: G.0393.04 (FWO), P5/24 (Belspo)

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