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Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B
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Hens, N., Aerts, M., Shkedy, Z., Kimani, Peter K., Kojouhorova, M., Damme, Pierre van and Beutels, Ph.. (2008) Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.136 (No.3). pp. 341-351. ISSN 0950-2688
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008692
Abstract
The objective of this study was to model the age–time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79–84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences Faculty of Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Hepatitis B -- Mathematical models, Hepatitis B -- Vaccination, Immunization -- Bulgaria -- Case studies | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemiology and Infection | ||||
| Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | ||||
| ISSN: | 0950-2688 | ||||
| Official Date: | 2008 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Vol.136 | ||||
| Number: | No.3 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 341-351 | ||||
| Identification Number: | 10.1017/S0950268807008692 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
| Funder: | Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek—Vlaanderen [Fund for Scientific Research] (FWO), Belgium. Politique scientifique fédérale [Belgian Federal Science Policy Office] (Belspo) | ||||
| Grant number: | G.0393.04 (FWO), P5/24 (Belspo) | ||||
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/37274 |
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