Hens, N., Aerts, M., Shkedy, Z., Kimani, Peter K., Kojouhorova, M., Damme, Pierre van and Beutels, Ph.. (2008) Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.136 (No.3). pp. 341-351. ISSN 0950-2688

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Abstract

The objective of this study was to model the age–time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79–84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences Faculty of Medicine > Warwick Medical School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Hepatitis B -- Mathematical models, Hepatitis B -- Vaccination, Immunization -- Bulgaria -- Case studies
Journal or Publication Title:	Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	0950-2688
Official Date:	2008
Volume:	Vol.136
Number:	No.3
Page Range:	pp. 341-351
Identification Number:	10.1017/S0950268807008692
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek—Vlaanderen [Fund for Scientific Research] (FWO), Belgium. Politique scientifique fédérale [Belgian Federal Science Policy Office] (Belspo)
Grant number:	G.0393.04 (FWO), P5/24 (Belspo)
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/37274

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