Bosworth, Derek L., Jones, Paul, 1976- and Wilson, Robert A., 1951-. (2008) The transition to a highly qualified workforce. Education Economics, Vol.16 (No.2). pp. 127-147. ISSN 0964-5292

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Abstract

Globalization is putting increasing pressure on jobs in the United Kingdom, particularly among less skilled activities. The European response through the Lisbon Strategy has been diffuse, while UK policy appears much more focused, concentrating on the need to raise education and skill levels. The present paper examines the transition towards a more highly qualified workforce in the United Kingdom, including an assessment of probable future developments given recent trends towards greater participation in higher education. It describes two complementary forecasting exercises, whereby a stock‐flow model is used to produce UK‐wide estimates and, then, a multi‐logit equation is used to disaggregate these forecasts by region. The result is a set of estimates of the likely developments in the pattern of qualification attainment across the different parts of the United Kingdom, running through to 2014. It focuses upon the numbers of individuals broken down by level of qualification, gender, age and region. These forecasts suggest that, based on past trends (and consistent with meeting government targets), there will be substantial increases in the numbers and proportions of more qualified individuals and corresponding reductions among the less qualified. Further policy initiatives that may result from the Leitch Review are likely to further accentuate these changes.

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Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Employment Research
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Employment forecasting -- Great Britain, Vocational qualifications -- Great Britain -- Forecasting, College graduates -- Employment -- Great Britain -- Forecasting, Human capital -- Great Britain
Journal or Publication Title:	Education Economics
Publisher:	Routledge
ISSN:	0964-5292
Date:	June 2008
Volume:	Vol.16
Number:	No.2
Page Range:	pp. 127-147
Identification Number:	10.1080/09645290701306341
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Great Britain. Sector Skills Development Agency (SSDA), Learning and Skills Council (Great Britain) (LSC)
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/37547

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