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Nottingham knee osteoarthritis risk prediction models

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Zhang, Weiya, McWilliams, Daniel F., Ingham, Sarah L., Doherty, Sally A., Muthuri, Stella, Muir, Kenneth (Kenneth R.) and Doherty, M., M.D.. (2011) Nottingham knee osteoarthritis risk prediction models. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases, Vol.70 (No.9). pp. 1599-1604. ISSN 0003-4967

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/ard.2011.149807

Abstract

Objectives (1) To develop risk prediction models for knee osteoarthritis (OA) and (2) to estimate the risk reduction that results from modification of potential risk factors. Method This was a 12-year retrospective cohort study undertaken in the general population in Nottingham, UK. Baseline risk factors were collected by questionnaire. Incident radiographic knee OA was defined by Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) score >= 2. Incident symptomatic knee OA was defined by KL >= 2 plus knee pain. Progression of knee OA was defined by KL >= 1 grade increase from baseline. A logistic regression model was used for prediction. Calibration and discrimination of the models were tested in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) population and Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) population. ORs of the models were compared with those obtained from meta-analysis of existing literature. Results From a community sample of 424 people aged over 40, 3 risk prediction models were developed. These included incidence of radiographic knee OA, incidence of symptomatic knee OA and progression of knee OA. All models had good calibration and moderate discrimination power in OAI and GOAL. The ORs lied within the 95% CIs of the published studies. The risk reduction due to modifying obesity at the individual and the population levels were demonstrated. Conclusions Risk prediction of knee OA based on the well established, common modifiable risk factors has been established. The models may be used to predict the risk of knee OA, and risk reduction due to preventing a specific risk factor.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Medicine > Warwick Medical School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Osteoarthritis -- Risk factors, Knee -- Diseases -- Risk factors
Journal or Publication Title:	Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
Publisher:	B M J Group
ISSN:	0003-4967
Date:	2011
Volume:	Vol.70
Number:	No.9
Page Range:	pp. 1599-1604
Identification Number:	10.1136/ard.2011.149807
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Arthritis Research UK, Great Britain. Dept. of Health (DoH), BUPA Foundation, AstraZeneca (Firm)
Grant number:	D00502 (ARUK), 133550 (ARUK), 07/H0403/111 (ARUK), 745/G23 (BUPA)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/38642