Robotham, Julie (2007) The epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of healthcare-associated infections. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

Preview

PDF WRAP_THESIS_Robotham_2007.pdf - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader Download (42Mb)

Abstract

This thesis presents research on the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI) and focuses on the antibiotic resistant hospital pathogen methicillin-resistant Staphylococcits aureus (MRSA). First, a stochastic mathematical model of MRSA transmission dynamics is developed in which patient movement within and between both hospital and community populations is considered. The effects on transmission of both surveillance and control within this setting are explored. Significant interplay is found to exist between surveillance and control; surveillance is shown to be essential to control success and in addition allows quantification of the level of control achieved. Furthermore, patient movement between hospital and community populations is shown to have a considerable impact on transmission dynamics and on the success of infection control strategies. Analyses of the demographics of a hospital population using a real hospital dataset are presented and the heterogeneous nature of the patient population described. Differences in admission patterns and length of hospital stay between age groups, gender and speciality are explored. Combining these analyses highlights the patient groups constituting the majority of patient days. Further to this, the heterogeneous nature of patient readmissions is described and the existence of a 'core group' of most frequently readmitted patients is illustrated. Overall, readmissions are found to be far more likely than previously thought, with the majority of patient admissions to hospital being readmissions. Given this finding of increased readmission, the hospital admission data is used to inform the development of a model in which real patient movements between the hospital and community are simulated and transmission within this setting explored. Endemic behaviour results and the change in movement patterns is found to influence control strategy success. Further to this, the model is extended to simulate transmission within a multi-centre setting where patient movements within a three-hospital and community network are simulated. This increase in heterogeneity within the patient population appears to allow endemic behaviour throughout all hospitals 11 within the network.

Item Type:	Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Staphylococcus aureus infections, Nosocomial infections -- Transmission -- Mathematical models, Hospitals -- Admission and discharge -- Statistics
Date:	May 2007
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Biological Sciences
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Medley, Graham
Sponsors:	Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Great Britain) (BBSRC)
Extent:	xiv, 172 leaves
Language:	eng
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/4105

Request changes to a record

Actions (login required)

View Item