Quantile estimates of counterfactual distribution shifts and the impact of minimum wage increases on the wage distribution
Stewart, Mark B. (2011) Quantile estimates of counterfactual distribution shifts and the impact of minimum wage increases on the wage distribution. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Dept. of Economics. (Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS), Vol.2011).
WRAP_Stewart_twerp_958.pdf - Draft Version - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/resear...
This paper presents a method for estimating the eﬀects of a policy change on an outcome distribution that uses a comparator quantile rather than a control group and provides methods for estimating the variances of the estimators. The empirical analysis presents estimates of "spillover" eﬀects of increases in the UK minimum wage, i.e. eﬀects on the wages of those already above the minimum, under diﬀerent counterfactual distribution shift assumptions. Evidence is presented against a simple scaled counterfactual. On the basis of the proposed counterfactual estimated spillover eﬀects are small and in most cases do not reach above the 5th. percentile.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Estimation theory, Economic policy, Minimum wage -- Great Britain -- Econometric models|
|Series Name:||Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS)|
|Publisher:||University of Warwick. Dept. of Economics|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
|Funder:||Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), Great Britain. Low Pay Commission (LPC)|
|Grant number:||RES000222611 (ESRC)|
|References:||Athey, S. and Imbens, G.W. (2006), “Identification and inference in nonlinear differencein- differences models”, Econometrica, 74, 431—497. Autor, D.H., Manning, A. and Smith, C.L. (2010), “The contribution of the minimum wage to US wage inequality over three decades: a reassessment”, NBER Working Paper 16533. Bird, D. (2004), “Methodology for the 2004 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings”, Labour Market Trends, November, 457—464. Bloch, D.A. and Gastwirth, J.L. (1968), “On a simple estimate of the reciprocal of the density function”, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 39, 1083—1085. Bofinger, E. (1975), “Estimation of a density function using order statistics”, Australian Journal of Statistics, 17, 1—7. Butcher, T. (2005), “The hourly earnings distribution before and after the National Minimum Wage”, Labour Market Trends, October, 427—435. Butcher, T., Dickens, R. and Manning, A. (2008), “Impact of the NMW on wage differentials”, Low Pay Commission Research Workshop: The National Minimum Wage: Ten Years On, September. Card, D. and Krueger, A.B. (1995), Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage, Princeton University Press. David, H.A. (1970), Order Statistics, New York: Wiley Dickens, R. and Manning, A. (2004a), “Has the national minimum wage reduced UK wage inequality?”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 167, 613—626. Dickens, R. and Manning, A. (2004b), “Spikes and spill-overs: The impact of the national minimum wage on the wage distribution in a low wage sector”, Economic Journal, 114, C95—101. Dickens, R., Riley, R. and Wilkinson, D. (2009), “The Employment and Hours of Work Effects of the Changing National Minimum Wage”, Report to the Low Pay Commission. DiNardo, J., Fortin, N.M. and Lemieux, T. (1996), “Labor market institutions and the distribution of wages, 1973—1992: A semiparametric approach”, Econometrica, 64, 1001—1044. Dobbs, C. (2009), “Patterns of pay: results of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 1997 to 2008”, Economic and Labour Market Review, 3(3), 24—32. Doksum, K. (1974), “Empirical probability plots and statistical inference for nonlinear models in the two-sample case”, Annals of Statistics, 2, 267—277. Falk, A., Fehr, E. and Zehnder, C. (2006), “Fairness perceptions and reservation wages - the behavioural effects of minimum wage laws”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, 1347—1381. Flinn, C.J. (2006), “Minimum wage effects on labour market outcomes under search, matching, and endogenous contact rates”, Econometrica, 74, 1013—1062. Fortin, N., Lemieux, T. and Firpo, S. (2010), “Decomposition methods in economics”, NBER Working Paper 16045, forthcoming in Handbook of Labor Economics, vol 4. Gramlich, E.M. (1976), “Impact of minimum wages on other wages, employment and family incomes”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 409—451. Hall, P. and Martin, M.A. (1991), “On the error incurred using the bootstrap variance estimate when constructing confidence intervals for quantiles”, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 38, 70—81. Hall, P. and Sheather S.J. (1988), “On the distribution of a studentized quantile”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B, 50, 381—391. Imbens, G.W. and Wooldridge, J.M. (2009), “Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation”, Journal of Economic Literature, 47, 5—86. Kendall, M.G. (1940), “Note on the distribution of quantiles for large samples”, Supplement to the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 7, 83—85. Kendall, M.G. and Stuart, A. (1977) The Advanced Theory of Statistics: Volume 1: Distribution Theory, 4th. edition, London: Griffin. Koenker, R. (2005), Quantile Regression, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Lee, D.S. (1999), “Wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s: Rising dispersion or falling minimum wage?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 977—1023. Lehmann, E.L. (1974), Nonparametrics : Statistical Methods Based on Ranks, Holden-Day. Low Pay Commission (2009), National Minimum Wage, LPC Report 2009, Cm 7611, The Stationery Office. Metcalf, D. (2008), “Why has the British National Minimum Wage had little or no impact on employment?”, Journal of Industrial Relations, 50, 489—572. Meyer, B., Viscusi, K. and Durbin, D. (1995), “Workers’ compensation and injury duration: Evidence from a natural experiment”, American Economic Review, 85, 322—340. Neumark, D., Schweitzer, M. and Wascher, W. (2004), “Minimum wage effects throughout the wage distribution”, Journal of Human Resources, 39, 425—450. Neumark, D. and Wascher W.L. (2008), Minimum Wages, Cambridge: MIT Press. Pont, M. (2007), “Coverage and non-response errors in the UK New Earnings Survey”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 170, 713—733. Robinson, H. and Wadsworth, J. (2007), “Did the minimum wage affect the incidence of second job holding in Britain?”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 54, 553—574. Rothe, C. (2010), “Nonparametric estimation of distributional policy effects”, Journal of Econometrics, 155, 56—70. Siddiqui, M.M. (1960), “Distribution of quantiles in samples from a bivariate population”, Journal of Research of the National Bureau of Standards, B, 64, 145—150. Silverman, B. (1986), Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, New York: Chapman and Hall. Stewart, M.B. (2004), “The impact of the introduction of the UK minimum wage on the employment probabilities of low-wage workers”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2, 67—97. Stewart, M.B. and Swaffield, J.K. (2008), “The other margin: Do minimum wages cause working hours adjustments for low-wage workers?”, Economica, 75, 148—167. Swaffield, J.K. (2008), “How has the minimum wage affected the wage growth of low-wage workers in Britain?”, mimeo, University of York. Wand, M.P. and Jones, M.C. (1995), Kernel Smoothing, New York: Chapman and Hall.|
Actions (login required)