Hansen, Stephen and McMahon, Michael F. (2011) How experts decide : identifying preferences versus signals from policy decisions. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Dept. of Economics. (Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS), Vol.2011).

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Abstract

A large theoretical literature assumes that experts differ in terms of preferences and the distribution of their private signals, but the empirical literature to date has not separately identified them. This paper proposes a novel way of doing so by relating the probability a member chooses a particular policy decision to the prior belief that it is correct. We then apply this methodology to study differences between internal and external members on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Using a variety of proxies for the prior, we provide evidence that they differ significantly on both dimensions.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Decision making, Specialists, Bank of England. Monetary Policy Committee -- Decision making
Series Name:	Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS)
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Dept. of Economics
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	2011
Volume:	Vol.2011
Number:	No.963
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/41108

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