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Aggregating expert judgement
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French, Simon (2011) Aggregating expert judgement. Revista de la Real Academia de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales. Serie A. Matematicas, Vol.105 (No.1). pp. 181-206. doi:10.1007/s13398-011-0018-6 ISSN 1578-7303.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13398-011-0018-6
Abstract
In a paper written some 25 years ago, I distinguished three contexts in which
one might wish to combine expert judgements of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group
decision problem and the textbook problem. Over the intervening years much has been written
on the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, but little on the third,
though the closely related field of meta-analysis has developed considerably. With many
developments in internet technology, particularly in relation to interactivity and communication,
the textbook problem is gaining in importance since data and expert judgements
can be made available over the web to be used by many different individuals to shape their
own beliefs in many different contexts. Moreover, applications such as web-based decision
support, e-participation and e-democracy are making algorithmic ‘solutions’ to the group
decision problem attractive, despite many results showing we know that such solutions are,
at best, rare and, at worst, illusory. In this paper I survey developments since my earlier paper
and note some unresolved issues. Then I turn to how expert judgement might be used within
web-based group decision support, as well as in e-participation and e-democracy contexts.
The latter points to a growing importance of the textbook problem and suggests that Cooke’s
principles for scientific reporting of expert judgement studies may need enhancing for such
studies to be used by a wider audience.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Decision support systems, Group decision making -- Mathematical models | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Revista de la Real Academia de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales. Serie A. Matematicas | ||||
Publisher: | Springer Italia Srl | ||||
ISSN: | 1578-7303 | ||||
Official Date: | 2011 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Vol.105 | ||||
Number: | No.1 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 181-206 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1007/s13398-011-0018-6 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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