The Library
The probability of containment for multitype branching process models for emerging epidemics
Tools
Spencer, Simon E. F. and O'Neill, P. D. (2011) The probability of containment for multitype branching process models for emerging epidemics. Journal of Applied Probability, Vol.48 (No.1). pp. 173-188. doi:10.1239/jap/1300198143 ISSN 0021-9002.
Research output not available from this repository.
Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.
Abstract
This paper is concerned with the definition and calculation of containment probabilities for emerging disease epidemics. A general multitype branching process is used to model an emerging infectious disease in a population of households. It is shown that the containment probability satisfies a certain fixed point equation which has a unique solution under certain conditions; the case of multiple solutions is also described. The extinction probability of the branching process is shown to be a special case of the containment probability. It is shown that Laplace transform ordering of the severity distributions of households in different epidemics yields an ordering on the containment probabilities. The results are illustrated with both standard epidemic models and a specific model for an emerging strain of influenza.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alternative Title: | |||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Applied Probability | ||||
Publisher: | Applied Probability Trust | ||||
ISSN: | 0021-9002 | ||||
Official Date: | March 2011 | ||||
Dates: |
|
||||
Volume: | Vol.48 | ||||
Number: | No.1 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 173-188 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1239/jap/1300198143 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Funder: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |