Danon, Leon, House, Thomas A. and Keeling, Matthew James (2009) The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics, Vol.1 (No.4). pp. 250-258. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2009.11.002

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Abstract

Mathematical models of infectious disease spread are important tools for assessing the threat of a novel pathogen and offer the best information for mitigating an outbreak. Here we present a metapopulation model of disease spread in Great Britain defined at the level of electoral wards. Using data from the United Kingdom 2001 census and the National Travel Survey to define the amount of travel performed by individuals between wards, we examine the effect of assumptions on the regularity of travel. Routine, daily commuter-type movements, characteristic of the working population are shown to lead to a slower epidemic spread compared to movements with random destinations. We demonstrate that routine movements slow down the epidemic spread compared to a standard metapopulation setting by up to 25%. We also show that spurious long distance movements present in the census data do not have a significant impact on the development of a potential epidemic in Great Britain.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title:	Epidemics
Publisher:	Elsevier BV
ISSN:	1755-4365
Official Date:	2009
Dates:	Date Event 2009 Published
Volume:	Vol.1
Number:	No.4
Number of Pages:	9
Page Range:	pp. 250-258
DOI:	10.1016/j.epidem.2009.11.002
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access

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