Prospects for malaria eradication in sub-Saharan Africa
Águas, Ricardo, White, L. J., Snow, Robert W. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M.. (2008) Prospects for malaria eradication in sub-Saharan Africa. PL o S One, Vol.3 (No.3). ISSN 1932-6203
WRAP_WHIte_Malaria_eradication.pdf - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001767
Background: A characteristic of Plasmodium falciparum infections is the gradual acquisition of clinical immunity resulting
from repeated exposures to the parasite. While the molecular basis of protection against clinical malaria remains
unresolved, its effects on epidemiological patterns are well recognized. Accumulating epidemiological data constitute a
valuable resource that must be intensively explored and interpreted as to effectively inform control planning.
Methodology/Principal Finding: Here we apply a mathematical model to clinical data from eight endemic regions in sub-
Saharan Africa. The model provides a quantitative framework within which differences in age distribution of clinical disease
are assessed in terms of the parameters underlying transmission. The shorter infectious periods estimated for clinical
infections induce a regime of bistability of endemic and malaria-free states in regions of mesoendemic transmission. The
two epidemiological states are separated by a threshold that provides a convenient measure for intervention design.
Scenarios of eradication and resurgence are simulated.
Conclusions/Significance: In regions that support mesoendemic transmission, intervention success depends critically on
reducing prevalence below a threshold which separates endemic and malaria-free regimes.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Plasmodium falciparum, Malaria -- Immunological aspects, Malaria -- Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Mathematical models|
|Journal or Publication Title:||PL o S One|
|Publisher:||Public Library of Science|
|Official Date:||12 March 2008|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
|Funder:||Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), European Commission (EC), Wellcome Trust (London, England)|
|Grant number:||SFRH/BD/23900/2005 (FCT), MEXT-CT-2004-14338 (EC), 061584 (WT)|
1. Snow RW, Guerra C, Noor A, Myint H, Hay S (2005) The global distribution of
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