Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation
Clements, Michael P. (2012) Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation. Working Paper. Coventry: Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS) (Number 976). (Unpublished)
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We consider whether survey respondents' probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Economic forecasting, Economic surveys|
|Series Name:||Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS)|
|Publisher:||Department of Economics, University of Warwick|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Official Date:||20 January 2012|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
Atkeson, A., and Ohanian, L. (2001). Are Phillips Curves useful for forecasting inflation?. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 25, 2-11. (1).
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