Clements, Michael P. (2012) Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation. Working Paper. Coventry: Department of Economics, University of Warwick. (Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS). (Unpublished)

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Abstract

We consider whether survey respondents' probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Economic forecasting, Economic surveys
Series Name:	Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS)
Publisher:	Department of Economics, University of Warwick
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	20 January 2012
Number:	Number 976
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/44609

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