Clements, Michael P. (2012) US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010. Working Paper. Coventry: Department of Economics, University of Warwick. (Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS), Volume 2012). (Unpublished)

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Abstract

The recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the SPF respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Economic forecasting, Economic surveys, Inflation (Finance) -- United States, Macroeconomics --Mathematical models , Rational expectations (Economic theory), Economic indicators
Series Name:	Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS)
Publisher:	Department of Economics, University of Warwick
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	2012
Volume:	Volume 2012
Number:	Number 986
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/44610

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