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Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs
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Jacks, David S. (David Steven), Meissner, Christopher M. (Christopher Michael) and Novy, Dennis (2009) Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs. Working Paper. The National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Papers (Number 15267). (Unpublished)
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Official URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15267
Abstract
What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HF Commerce | ||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | International trade -- Econometric models, Business cycles -- Econometric models, Globalization, Gravity model of international trade | ||||
| Series Name: | NBER Working Papers | ||||
| Publisher: | The National Bureau of Economic Research | ||||
| Official Date: | August 2009 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Number: | Number 15267 | ||||
| Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
| Funder: | Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) | ||||
| Grant number: | RES-000-22-3112 (ESRC) | ||||
| Version or Related Resource: | Jacks, D. S., et al. (2011). Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs. Journal of International Economics, 83(2), pp. 185-201. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/41599 | ||||
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