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The role of worker flows in the dynamics and distribution of UK unemployment
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Elsby, Michael W. L., Smith, Jennifer C. and Wadsworth, Jonathan (2011) The role of worker flows in the dynamics and distribution of UK unemployment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.27 (No.2). pp. 338-363. doi:10.1093/oxrep/grr014 ISSN 0266-903X.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grr014
Abstract
Unemployment varies substantially over time and across sub-groups of the labour market. Worker flows among labour-market states act as key determinants of this variation. We examine how the structure of unemployment across groups and its cyclical movements across time are shaped by changes in labour-market flows. Using novel estimates of flow transition rates for the UK over the last 35 years, we decompose unemployment variation into parts accounted for by changes in rates of job loss, job-finding, and flows via non-participation. Close to two-thirds of the volatility of unemployment in the UK over this period can be traced to rises in rates of job loss that accompany recessions. The share of this inflow contribution has been broadly the same in each of the past three recessions. Decreased job-finding rates account for around one-quarter of unemployment cyclicality and the remaining variation can be attributed to flows via non-participation. Digging deeper into the structure of unemployment by gender, age, and education, the flow approach is shown to provide a richer understanding of the unemployment experiences across population sub-groups.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Oxford Review of Economic Policy | ||||
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press | ||||
| ISSN: | 0266-903X | ||||
| Official Date: | 2011 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Vol.27 | ||||
| Number: | No.2 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 26 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 338-363 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1093/oxrep/grr014 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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