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Confidence intervals for random effects meta-analysis and robustness to publication bias
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Henmi, Masayuki and Copas, John B.. (2010) Confidence intervals for random effects meta-analysis and robustness to publication bias. Statistics in Medicine, Vol.29 (No.29). pp. 2969-2983. ISSN 0277-6715
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4029
Abstract
The DerSimonian-Laird confidence interval for the average treatment effect in meta-analysis is widely used in practice when there is heterogeneity between studies. However, it is well known that its coverage probability (the probability that the interval actually includes the true value) can be substantially below the target level of 95 per cent. It can also be very sensitive to publication bias. In this paper, we propose a new confidence interval that has better coverage than the DerSimonian-Laird method, and that is less sensitive to publication bias. The key idea is to note that fixed effects estimates are less sensitive to such biases than random effects estimates, since they put relatively more weight on the larger studies and relatively less weight on the smaller studies. Whereas the DerSimonian-Laird interval is centred on a random effects estimate, we centre our confidence interval on a fixed effects estimate, but allow for heterogeneity by including an assessment of the extra uncertainty induced by the random effects setting. Properties of the resulting confidence interval are studied by simulation and compared with other random effects confidence intervals that have been proposed in the literature. An example is briefly discussed. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine R Medicine Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Statistics in Medicine |
| Publisher: | John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
| ISSN: | 0277-6715 |
| Date: | 20 December 2010 |
| Volume: | Vol.29 |
| Number: | No.29 |
| Number of Pages: | 15 |
| Page Range: | pp. 2969-2983 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1002/sim.4029 |
| Status: | Peer Reviewed |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
| Funder: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), KAKENHI |
| Grant number: | GR/S67807/01 (EPSRC), 20700261 |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/4550 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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