Peavoy, D. and Franzke, C.. (2010) Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland delta O-18 data. Climate of the Past, Vol.6 (No.6). pp. 787-794. ISSN 1814-9324

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Abstract

We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of delta O-18 from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) using different timescales. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is presented to infer the number of states in a latent variable model along with their associated parameters. By using Bayesian model comparison methods we find that a model with 3 states is sufficient. These states correspond to a gradual cooling during the Greenland Interstadials, more rapid temperature decrease into Greenland Stadial and to the sudden rebound temperature increase at the onset of Greenland Interstadials. We investigate the recurrence properties of the onset of Greenland Interstadials and find no evidence to reject the null hypothesis of randomly timed events.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QE Geology Q Science > QC Physics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Centre for Complexity Science
Journal or Publication Title:	Climate of the Past
Publisher:	Copernicus GmbH
ISSN:	1814-9324
Date:	2010
Volume:	Vol.6
Number:	No.6
Number of Pages:	8
Page Range:	pp. 787-794
Identification Number:	10.5194/cp-6-787-2010
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Funder:	Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (NERC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/4565

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