Keeling, Matthew James and Shattock, Andrew. (2012) Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine. Epidemics, Vol.4 (No.2). pp. 78-85. ISSN 17554365

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Abstract

The final epidemic size (R∞) remains one of the fundamental outcomes of an epidemic, and measures the total number of individuals infected during a "free-fall" epidemic when no additional control action is taken. As such, it provides an idealised measure for optimising control policies before an epidemic arises. Although the generality of formulae for calculating the final epidemic size have been discussed previously, we offer an alternative probabilistic argument and then use this formula to consider the optimal deployment of vaccine in spatially segregated populations that minimises the total number of cases. We show that for a limited stockpile of vaccine, the optimal policy is often to immunise one population to the exclusion of others. However, as greater realism is included, this extreme and arguably unethical policy, is replaced by an optimal strategy where vaccine supply is more evenly spatially distributed.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Epidemics -- Mathematical models, Vaccination -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title:	Epidemics
Publisher:	Elsevier Science BV
ISSN:	17554365
Date:	2012
Volume:	Vol.4
Number:	No.2
Page Range:	pp. 78-85
Identification Number:	10.1016/j.epidem.2012.03.001
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/48055

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