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Expert judgment, meta-analysis, and participatory risk analysis
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French, Simon (2012) Expert judgment, meta-analysis, and participatory risk analysis. Decision Analysis, Vol.9 (No.2). pp. 119-127. doi:10.1287/deca.1120.0234 ISSN 1545-8490.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1120.0234
Abstract
There are three contexts in which one might wish to combine expert judgments of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group decision problem, and the textbook problem. Much has been written on the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, but little on the third. The textbook problem arises when one needs to draw together expert judgments into a decision analysis when their judgments were made originally in a context-free manner or perhaps for other decision contexts. In many ways the textbook problem parallels that of performing a meta-analysis of empirical studies. However, there are differences. In this paper, we discuss those difficulties and then focus on two closely related issues: How should expert judgment studies be published so as to facilitate subsequent meta-analyses, and how should such meta-analyses be performed?
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics | ||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Decision making -- Mathematical models, Meta-analysis, Risk assessment | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Decision Analysis | ||||
Publisher: | Informs | ||||
ISSN: | 1545-8490 | ||||
Official Date: | 2012 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Vol.9 | ||||
Number: | No.2 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 119-127 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1287/deca.1120.0234 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
Version or Related Resource: | French, S. (2011). Expert judgement, meta-analysis and participatory risk analysis. Presented at: GDRR 2011 - Second Symposium on Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk, Belgirate (VB), Lake Maggiore, Italy, 19-21 May 2011. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/41272 | ||||
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