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Enhancing Bayesian risk prediction for epidemics using contact tracing
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Jewell, Chris P. and Roberts, Gareth O.. (2012) Enhancing Bayesian risk prediction for epidemics using contact tracing. Biostatistics, Vol.13 (No.4). pp. 567-579. ISSN 1465-4644
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxs012
Abstract
Contact-tracing data (CTD) collected from disease outbreaks has received relatively little attention in the epidemic modeling literature because it is thought to be unreliable: infection sources might be wrongly attributed, or data might be missing due to resource constraints in the questionnaire exercise. Nevertheless, these data might provide a rich source of information on the disease transmission rate. This paper presents a novel methodology for combining CTD with rate-based contact network data to improve posterior precision, and therefore predictive accuracy. We present an advancement in Bayesian inference for epidemics that assimilates these data and is robust to partial contact tracing. Using a simulation study based on the British poultry industry, we show how the presence of CTD improves posterior predictive accuracy and can directly inform a more effective control strategy. © 2012 The Author.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Biostatistics |
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
| ISSN: | 1465-4644 |
| Date: | September 2012 |
| Volume: | Vol.13 |
| Number: | No.4 |
| Page Range: | pp. 567-579 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1093/biostatistics/kxs012 |
| Status: | Peer Reviewed |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/50267 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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