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Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning : review and extension
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Stewart, Theodor J., French, Simon and Rios, Jesus (2013) Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning : review and extension. Omega-International Journal of Management Science, Vol.41 (No.4). pp. 679-688. doi:10.1016/j.omega.2012.09.003
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WRAP_French_051212-scenmcdar2.pdf - Accepted Version Download (560Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2012.09.003
Abstract
Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of "metacriteria" (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HF Commerce Q Science > QA Mathematics T Technology > T Technology (General) |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Strategic planning, Multiple criteria decision making | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Omega-International Journal of Management Science | ||||
| Publisher: | Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd | ||||
| ISSN: | 0305-0483 | ||||
| Official Date: | August 2013 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Vol.41 | ||||
| Number: | No.4 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 679-688 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.omega.2012.09.003 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
| Funder: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), National Research Foundation (South Africa) |
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