Stewart, Theodor J., French, Simon, 1950- and Rios, Jesus. (2013) Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning : review and extension. Omega-International Journal of Management Science, Vol.41 (No.4). pp. 679-688. ISSN 0305-0483

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Abstract

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of "metacriteria" (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HF Commerce Q Science > QA Mathematics T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Strategic planning, Multiple criteria decision making
Journal or Publication Title:	Omega-International Journal of Management Science
Publisher:	Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
ISSN:	0305-0483
Date:	August 2013
Volume:	Vol.41
Number:	No.4
Page Range:	pp. 679-688
Identification Number:	10.1016/j.omega.2012.09.003
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), National Research Foundation (South Africa)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/51397

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