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Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics

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Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Ferguson, Neil M. and Anderson, Roy M. (2007) Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics. Emerging Infectious Diseases , Vol.13 (No.9). pp. 1288-1294. doi:10.3201/eid1309.070081 ISSN 1080-6059.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1309.070081

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Abstract

A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest. Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly. If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Epidemics, Aeronautics, Commercial -- Passenger traffic, Emerging infectious diseases
Journal or Publication Title: Emerging Infectious Diseases
Publisher: US Department of Health and Human Services
ISSN: 1080-6059
Official Date: September 2007
Dates:
DateEvent
September 2007Published
Volume: Vol.13
Number: No.9
Page Range: pp. 1288-1294
DOI: 10.3201/eid1309.070081
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit: 1 August 2016
Date of first compliant Open Access: 1 August 2016
Funder: European Union (EU), Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC)
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