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Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics
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Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Ferguson, Neil M. and Anderson, Roy M. (2007) Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics. Emerging Infectious Diseases , Vol.13 (No.9). pp. 1288-1294. doi:10.3201/eid1309.070081
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1309.070081
Abstract
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest. Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly. If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine | ||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Epidemics, Aeronautics, Commercial -- Passenger traffic, Emerging infectious diseases | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Emerging Infectious Diseases | ||||
| Publisher: | US Department of Health and Human Services | ||||
| ISSN: | 1080-6059 | ||||
| Official Date: | September 2007 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Vol.13 | ||||
| Number: | No.9 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1288-1294 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.3201/eid1309.070081 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
| Funder: | European Union (EU), Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC) | ||||
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