Fraser, C., Donnelly, C..A., Cauchemez, S., Hanage, W. P., Van Kerkhove, M. D., Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Griffin, J., Baggaley, Rebecca F., Jenkins, H. E., Lyons, E. J., Jombart, T., Hinsley, W. R., Grassly, N. C., Balloux, F., Ghani, Azra C., Rambaut, A. and Ferguson, N. M. (2009) Response - Influenza. Science, Vol.325 (No.5944). pp. 1072-1073. doi:10.1126/science.325_1072b

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Abstract

We thank McCaw et al. for their comments. Cross-immunity between new pandemic strains and preexisting influenza viruses is an intriguing possibility that has been explored in the context of explaining inter-subtype competition in pandemics (1). Indeed, preliminary published data suggest limited cross-reactive immunity to the novel H1N1 virus in the elderly (2). In terms of the relative merits of referring to the basic versus the effective reproduction number (R0 versus R), we used R0 because we were describing the spread of a novel influenza virus in a large population that had not been previously exposed to this virus strain. R0 is a population-specific composite variable (not a fundamental biological parameter) and is only well-defined in a large population; there are examples of higher attack rates in past pandemics in close-contact closed communities, but these were not representative of spread in large populations. Variation in attack rates by age may indeed suggest age-dependent susceptibility, but this was not caused by previous exposure to this novel virus and could equally be due to innate immunity or other biological mechanisms. We therefore felt that it was appropriate to describe spread using the term R0. However, we agree that the possibility of exposure to previous subtypes conferring partial immunity to the new H1N1 virus may—together with antigenic evolution—have implications for transmission of the pandemic virus over the coming months.

Item Type:	Journal Item
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title:	Science
Publisher:	American Association for the Advancement of Science
ISSN:	0036-8075
Official Date:	August 2009
Dates:	Date Event August 2009 Published
Volume:	Vol.325
Number:	No.5944
Page Range:	pp. 1072-1073
DOI:	10.1126/science.325_1072b
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access

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