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Clements, Michael P. and Galvão, Ana Beatriz. (2010) First announcements and real economic activity. European Economic Review , Vol.54 (No.6). pp. 803-817. ISSN 0014-2921
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.12.010
Abstract
The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy while the actual value of output growth does not. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to perceptions instead of the truth, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. The revisions to the initial estimates which define the final values of the observations are shown to be key in determining any relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics |
| Journal or Publication Title: | European Economic Review |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0014-2921 |
| Date: | August 2010 |
| Volume: | Vol.54 |
| Number: | No.6 |
| Number of Pages: | 15 |
| Page Range: | pp. 803-817 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.12.010 |
| Status: | Peer Reviewed |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/5334 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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