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How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation
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House, Thomas A., Ross, Joshua V. and Sirl, David (2012) How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation. Proceedings of the Royal Society A : Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Volume 469 (Number 2150). Article no. 20120436. doi:10.1098/rspa.2012.0436 ISSN 1364-5021.
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WRAP_House_Proc. R. Soc. A-2013-House-.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial. Download (1134Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2012.0436
Abstract
Epidemic models have become a routinely used tool to inform policy on infectious disease. A particular interest at the moment is the use of computationally intensive inference to parametrize these models. In this context, numerical efficiency is critically important. We consider methods for evaluating the probability mass function of the total number of infections over the course of a stochastic epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite populations, but also considering heterogeneous and large populations. Relevant methods are reviewed critically, with existing and novel extensions also presented. We provide code in MATLAB and a systematic comparison of numerical efficiency.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Epidemiology -- Research , Epidemics -- Mathematical models, Health planning -- Mathematical models, Communicable diseases -- Research, Markov processes | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the Royal Society A : Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences | ||||
| Publisher: | Royal Society Publishing | ||||
| ISSN: | 1364-5021 | ||||
| Official Date: | 2012 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volume 469 | ||||
| Number: | Number 2150 | ||||
| Page Range: | Article no. 20120436 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspa.2012.0436 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 24 December 2015 | ||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 24 December 2015 | ||||
| Funder: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Australian Research Council (ARC) | ||||
| Grant number: | DP110102893 (ARC) |
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