Aoki, Yu (2012) Identification of causal effects using the 1995 earthquake in Japan : studies of education and health. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

This thesis aims to identify causal effects using a natural experimental approach.
We focus on the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in midwestern Japan as a source
of exogenous variation in the variables of interest.
Chapter 1 explores the causal effect of schooling on juvenile delinquency using
variation in schooling caused by policy interventions in specific municipalities
after the earthquake. Using the instrumental variable estimator to address endogeneity
problems arising from simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity, we find
that schooling reduces juvenile delinquency, although some of our estimates have
large standard errors and are imprecisely estimated. The results indicate that a
one-percentage-point increase in the high school participation rate reduces the
number of juvenile arrests by approximately 1.1 per 1,000 youths. 1 Estimates
of social benefits show that it is less expensive to reach a target level of social
benefits by improving schooling than by strengthening police forces.
Chapter 2 studies the causal effect of volunteer work on the mortality of the
elderly. After the earthquake, levels of volunteering increased considerably in
municipalities hit by the earthquake, while other municipalities did not experience
such a sharp increase. This exogenous shift in levels of volunteering is exploited
to address the endogeneity problem associated with estimating the effects
of volunteering. Specifically, unobserved heterogeneity across municipalities that
affects both morality and the level of volunteering, such as the quality of local
health care services, may bias estimates on the effect of volunteering. The results
indicate that volunteering has no significant effect on mortality amongst people in
their 50s and 60s, while it significantly reduces mortality amongst people in their
70s and 80s or older. Evaluated at the mean, the estimate implies that the life of
approximately one person aged 80 or older (out of 186 persons) is saved in a given
year when the number of volunteers increases by 100 (out of 1,911 persons).

Item Type:	Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HM Sociology
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Kobe Earthquake, Japan, 1995, Earthquakes -- Economic aspects -- Japan, Earthquakes -- Health aspects -- Japan, Earthquakes -- Social aspects -- Japan, Voluntarism -- Japan, Sampling (Statistics)
Official Date:	November 2012
Dates:	Date Event November 2012 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Economics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Arulampalam, Wiji; Naylor, Robin A.
Sponsors:	Japan. Monbu Kagakushō [Japan. Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology] (MK); University of Warwick
Extent:	xiv, 100 leaves : illustrations.
Language:	eng

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