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Dynamic Bradley–Terry modelling of sports tournaments

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Cattelan, Manuela , Varin, Cristiano and Firth, David (2013) Dynamic Bradley–Terry modelling of sports tournaments. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society : Series C, Volulme 62 (Number 1). pp. 135-150. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x

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Abstract

Summary.  In the course of national sports tournaments, usually lasting several months, it is expected that the abilities of teams taking part in the tournament will change over time. A dynamic extension of the Bradley–Terry model for paired comparison data is introduced to model the outcomes of sporting contests, allowing for time varying abilities. It is assumed that teams’ home and away abilities depend on past results through exponentially weighted moving average processes. The model proposed is applied to sports data with and without tied contests, namely the 2009–2010 regular season of the National Basketball Association tournament and the 2008–2009 Italian Serie A football season.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Multivariate analysis, Analysis of variance, Mathematical statistics, Athletes, Athletic ability -- Testing, Sports tournaments
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society : Series C
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
ISSN: 0035-9254
Official Date: January 2013
Dates:
DateEvent
January 2013Published
Volume: Volulme 62
Number: Number 1
Page Range: pp. 135-150
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Italy. Ministero dell'istruzione, dell'università e della ricerca (MIUR), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

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