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Dynamic Bradley–Terry modelling of sports tournaments
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Cattelan, Manuela , Varin, Cristiano and Firth, David (2013) Dynamic Bradley–Terry modelling of sports tournaments. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society : Series C, Volulme 62 (Number 1). pp. 135-150. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x
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WRAP_Firth_Dynamic_Bradley_j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (865Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x
Abstract
Summary. In the course of national sports tournaments, usually lasting several months, it is expected that the abilities of teams taking part in the tournament will change over time. A dynamic extension of the Bradley–Terry model for paired comparison data is introduced to model the outcomes of sporting contests, allowing for time varying abilities. It is assumed that teams’ home and away abilities depend on past results through exponentially weighted moving average processes. The model proposed is applied to sports data with and without tied contests, namely the 2009–2010 regular season of the National Basketball Association tournament and the 2008–2009 Italian Serie A football season.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics | ||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Multivariate analysis, Analysis of variance, Mathematical statistics, Athletes, Athletic ability -- Testing, Sports tournaments | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society : Series C | ||||
| Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. | ||||
| ISSN: | 0035-9254 | ||||
| Official Date: | January 2013 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volulme 62 | ||||
| Number: | Number 1 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 135-150 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||
| Funder: | Italy. Ministero dell'istruzione, dell'università e della ricerca (MIUR), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
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