Ormerod, R. J.. (2010) Rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol.61 (No.8). pp. 1207-1223. ISSN 0160-5682

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Abstract

The paper reviews three modes of rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic. Many examples of each can be found in scientific endeavour, professional practice and public discourse. However, while the strengths and weaknesses of deductive and inductive inference are well established, the implications of the emerging probabilistic orientation are still being worked through. The paper discusses some of the recent findings in psychology and philosophy, and speculates about the implications for scientific and professional practice in general and OR in particular. It is suggested that the probabilistic orientation and Bayesian approach can provide an epistemological lens through which to view the claims of different approaches to inference. Some suggestions for further research are made. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2010) 61, 1207-1223. doi: 10.1057/jors.2009.96 Published online 26 August 2009

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of the Operational Research Society
Publisher:	Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.
ISSN:	0160-5682
Date:	August 2010
Volume:	Vol.61
Number:	No.8
Number of Pages:	17
Page Range:	pp. 1207-1223
Identification Number:	10.1057/jors.2009.96
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/5502

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