Datta, Samik, Bull, James C., Budge, Giles E. and Keeling, Matthew James (2013) Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Volume 10 (Number 88). Article number 20130650. doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.0650

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Abstract

We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Biomathematics, Environmental sciences, American foulbrood, Honeybee -- Diseases, Epidemiology, Bees -- Diseases, Stochastic analysis
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Publisher:	The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:	1742-5689
Official Date:	11 September 2013
Dates:	Date Event 11 September 2013 Published
Volume:	Volume 10
Number:	Number 88
Article Number:	Article number 20130650
DOI:	10.1098/rsif.2013.0650
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Great Britain) (BBSRC), Great Britain. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (NERC), Scotland. Scottish Government, Wellcome Trust (London, England)
Grant number:	BB/I000801, BB/I000615/1 (WT)

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