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Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain
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Crafts, N. F. R. and Mills, Terence C. (2013) Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain. Working Paper. Coventry, UK: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (TWERPS), Volume 2013 (Number 1018).
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Text (Working paper)
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Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/resear...
Abstract
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and ‘defense news’. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a
Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may,
however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works program of similar magnitude if private investment anticipated the need to add capacity to cope with future defense spending.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Public works -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Defenses, Econometric models -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 20th century, Keynesian economics | ||||
| Series Name: | Warwick economics research papers series (TWERPS) | ||||
| Publisher: | University of Warwick, Department of Economics | ||||
| Place of Publication: | Coventry, UK | ||||
| Official Date: | 2013 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volume 2013 | ||||
| Number: | Number 1018 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 41 | ||||
| Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||
| Version or Related Resource: | Crafts, Nicholas and Mills , Terence C. (2012) Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain. Working Paper. Coventry, UK: Department of Economics, University of Warwick. (CAGE Online Working Paper Series, No.103/2012). http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/57901 | ||||
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