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Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain

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Crafts, N. F. R. and Mills, Terence C. (2013) Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain. Working Paper. Coventry, UK: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (TWERPS), Volume 2013 (Number 1018).

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Abstract

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and ‘defense news’. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a
Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may,
however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works program of similar magnitude if private investment anticipated the need to add capacity to cope with future defense spending.

Item Type: Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Public works -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Defenses, Econometric models -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 20th century, Keynesian economics
Series Name: Warwick economics research papers series (TWERPS)
Publisher: University of Warwick, Department of Economics
Place of Publication: Coventry, UK
Official Date: 2013
Dates:
DateEvent
2013Published
Volume: Volume 2013
Number: Number 1018
Number of Pages: 41
Institution: University of Warwick
Status: Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Version or Related Resource: Crafts, Nicholas and Mills , Terence C. (2012) Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain. Working Paper. Coventry, UK: Department of Economics, University of Warwick. (CAGE Online Working Paper Series, No.103/2012). http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/57901
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