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Spatial and stochastic epidemics : theory, simulation and control

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Brand, Samuel (2012) Spatial and stochastic epidemics : theory, simulation and control. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b2681932~S1

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Abstract

It is now widely acknowledged that spatial structure and hence the spatial position
of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In this work
I investigate an ensemble of techniques for understanding the stochastic dynamics
of spatial and discrete epidemic processes, with especial consideration given to SIR
disease dynamics for the Levins-type metapopulation.
I present a toolbox of techniques for the modeller of spatial epidemics. The
highlight results are a novel form of moment closure derived directly from a stochastic
differential representation of the epidemic, a stochastic simulation algorithm that
asymptotically in system size greatly out-performs existing simulation methods for
the spatial epidemic and finally a method for tackling optimal vaccination scheduling
problems for controlling the spread of an invasive pathogen.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Epidemics -- Mathematical models, Stochastic processes, Spatial analysis (Statistics)
Official Date: September 2012
Dates:
DateEvent
September 2012Submitted
Institution: University of Warwick
Theses Department: Centre for Complexity Science
Thesis Type: PhD
Publication Status: Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: Keeling, Matthew James
Sponsors: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Extent: ix, 228 leaves : illustrations
Language: eng

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