Brand, Samuel (2012) Spatial and stochastic epidemics : theory, simulation and control. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

It is now widely acknowledged that spatial structure and hence the spatial position
of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In this work
I investigate an ensemble of techniques for understanding the stochastic dynamics
of spatial and discrete epidemic processes, with especial consideration given to SIR
disease dynamics for the Levins-type metapopulation.
I present a toolbox of techniques for the modeller of spatial epidemics. The
highlight results are a novel form of moment closure derived directly from a stochastic
differential representation of the epidemic, a stochastic simulation algorithm that
asymptotically in system size greatly out-performs existing simulation methods for
the spatial epidemic and finally a method for tackling optimal vaccination scheduling
problems for controlling the spread of an invasive pathogen.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Epidemics -- Mathematical models, Stochastic processes, Spatial analysis (Statistics)
Official Date:	September 2012
Dates:	Date Event September 2012 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Centre for Complexity Science
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Keeling, Matthew James
Sponsors:	Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Extent:	ix, 228 leaves : illustrations
Language:	eng

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