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Incumbent effects and partisan alignment in local elections : a regression discontinuity analysis using Italian data
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Bracco, Emanuele, Redoano, Michela and Porcelli, Francesco (2012) Incumbent effects and partisan alignment in local elections : a regression discontinuity analysis using Italian data. Working Paper. Coventry, UK: Department of Economics, University of Warwick. CAGE Online Working Paper Series, Volume 2012 (Number 87).
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Text (Working paper)
WRAP_87.2012_redoano.pdf - Published Version Download (1428Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/resear...
Abstract
This paper provides a simple model to explain effect of political alignment between
different tiers of government on policy choices and election outcomes. We
derive precise predictions that, as long as voters attribute most of the credit for
providing public goods to the local government: (i) aligned municipalities receive
more grants, set lower taxes and provide more public goods, (ii) that the probability
that the local incumbent is re-elected is higher in aligned municipalities compared to
not aligned ones. Our empirical strategy to identify the alignment effects is built
upon the fact that being or not aligned changes discontinuously at 50% of the vote
share of local parties. This allows us to use sharp regression discontinuity design.
Our theoretical predictions are largely confirmed using a new dataset on Italian
public finance and electoral data at the central and local level.
Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory J Political Science > JA Political science (General) J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Economic development -- Italy, Economic policy , Political science -- Italy, Elections -- Italy | ||||
Series Name: | CAGE Online Working Paper Series | ||||
Publisher: | Department of Economics, University of Warwick | ||||
Place of Publication: | Coventry, UK | ||||
Official Date: | April 2012 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 2012 | ||||
Number: | Number 87 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 34 | ||||
Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 1 August 2016 | ||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 1 August 2016 | ||||
Funder: | University of Warwick | ||||
Version or Related Resource: | Bracco, Emanuele, et al. (2011). Incumbent effects and partisan alignment in local elections : a regression discontinuity analysis using Italian data. In: Crisi Economica, Welfare e Crescita. Palazzo Centrale dell'Università, Pavia, 19-20 Sep 2011. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/45312 | ||||
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