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Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts
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Clements, Michael P.. (2010) Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts. European Economic Review , Vol.54 (No.4). pp. 536-549. ISSN 0014-2921
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003
Abstract
A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics |
| Journal or Publication Title: | European Economic Review |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0014-2921 |
| Date: | May 2010 |
| Volume: | Vol.54 |
| Number: | No.4 |
| Number of Pages: | 14 |
| Page Range: | pp. 536-549 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003 |
| Status: | Peer Reviewed |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/5780 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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