Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts
Clements, Michael P.. (2010) Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts. European Economic Review , Vol.54 (No.4). pp. 536-549. ISSN 0014-2921Full text not available from this repository.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003
A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Journal or Publication Title:||European Economic Review|
|Number of Pages:||14|
|Page Range:||pp. 536-549|
|Access rights to Published version:||Restricted or Subscription Access|
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