Savill, Nicholas J., Shaw, Darren J., Deardon, Rob, Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matthew James, Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Brooks, Stephan P. and Grenfell, Bryan T.. (2006) Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research, Vol.2 (No.3). ISSN 1746-6148

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Abstract

Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	S Agriculture > SF Animal culture Q Science > QL Zoology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Foot and mouth disease -- Great Britain, Foot and mouth disease -- Epidemiology, Veterinary virology
Journal or Publication Title:	BMC Veterinary Research
Publisher:	BioMed Central Ltd.
ISSN:	1746-6148
Date:	16 January 2006
Volume:	Vol.2
Number:	No.3
Identification Number:	10.1186/1746-6148-2-3
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Wellcome Trust (London, England)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/585

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