Langmead, Olivia (2002) Coral community dynamics and disturbances : a modelling approach for Caribbean coral reefs. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

The capacity of reefs to recover after disturbance is fundamental to prediction of
their stability. This is particularly relevant now, following the global decline of reefs
during the last decades. A discrete, spatially explicit model (probabilistic cellular
automaton) was developed to simulate a Caribbean coral community. Community
complexity was generated from behaviour of fundamental units of corals, the polyps.

Regarding background disturbance, area disturbed and patch size were investigated;
both were equally important in driving coral community structure and diversity. A
powerlaw model was developed to predict natural disturbances, and implemented in
later testing of system dynamics. Corals were assigned differential susceptibilities to
background disturbances. Results assessed against field data showed that most
modelled species had realistic colony size frequency distributions (though 20% had
insufficient comparison data).
Following model development, recovery from single impacts (simulated warming
events) was tested. Model responses indicate importance of local setting to
community resilience. Individual susceptibility of species was mediated by life
history strategy investment.

Application of a warming sequence of predicted anomalies for this century was then
introduced. Community composition changed betwee1 0-40 years from
predominantly persistent, large, slow growing species to small, fecund, fast growing
species. After 40 years a phase shift occurred in which algae dominated the
community. It is concluded that the future may herald declines in the main Caribbean
reef-building species, in ways that match several previous but largely untested
speculations. This model indicates that there will be serious implications to reefs,
including their numerous commercially important species.

The model includes all known major life history attributes of the corals, based on real
data. Structural properties of the model were tested for stability and computational
efficiency.
Disturbances of
several types were investigated; natural background disturbance, and
warming events, both as single and repeated incidents to assess recovery dynamics in
the light of ongoing, intensifying climate-mediated global changes.

Item Type:	Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects:	Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Coral reefs and islands -- Caroline Islands, Marine ecology
Official Date:	September 2002
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Biological Sciences
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Sheppard, Charles (Charles R. C.)
Sponsors:	University of Warwick
Extent:	xvi, 227 leaves
Language:	eng

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