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Football goal distributions and extremal statistics
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Greenhough, J., Birch, P.C., Chapman, Sandra C. and Rowlands, G. (George) (2002) Football goal distributions and extremal statistics. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Vol.1 (No.4). pp. 615-624. doi:10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01030-0 ISSN 0378-4371 .
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01030-0 ...
Abstract
We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated processes. Log-normal distributions cannot include zero scores and here we find that the PDFs are consistent with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/71–2000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation Leisure Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Football, Soccer, Statistics -- Data processing | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications | ||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier BV | ||||
| ISSN: | 0378-4371 | ||||
| Official Date: | 29 June 2002 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Vol.1 | ||||
| Number: | No.4 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 615-624 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01030-0 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
| Funder: | Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council (Great Britain) (PPARC) |
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