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Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
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Britton, Tom, House, Thomas A., Lloyd, Alun L., Mollison, Denis, Riley, Steven and Trapman, Pieter (2015) Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission. Epidemics, 10 . pp. 54-57. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002 ISSN 1755-4365.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002
Abstract
The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemics | ||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier BV | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1755-4365 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 18 March 2015 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 10 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 54-57 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) |
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