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Rock, Kat S., Brand, Samuel, Moir, Jo and Keeling, Matthew James (2014) Dynamics of infectious diseases. Reports on Progress in Physics, Volume 77 (Number 2). Article number 026602. doi:10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602
Abstract
Modern infectious disease epidemiology has a strong history of using mathematics both for prediction and to gain a deeper understanding. However the study of infectious diseases is a highly interdisciplinary subject requiring insights from multiple disciplines, in particular a biological knowledge of the pathogen, a statistical description of the available data and a mathematical framework for prediction. Here we begin with the basic building blocks of infectious disease epidemiology—the SIS and SIR type models—before considering the progress that has been made over the recent decades and the challenges that lie ahead. Throughout we focus on the understanding that can be developed from relatively simple models, although accurate prediction will inevitably require far greater complexity beyond the scope of this review. In particular, we focus on three critical aspects of infectious disease models that we feel fundamentally shape their dynamics: heterogeneously structured populations, stochasticity and spatial structure. Throughout we relate the mathematical models and their results to a variety of real-world problems.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QR Microbiology Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Communicable diseases -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models, Immunology -- Mathematical models | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Reports on Progress in Physics | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd. | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0034-4885 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | 20 January 2014 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 27 December 2015 | ||||||||
| Volume: | Volume 77 | ||||||||
| Number: | Number 2 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | Article number 026602 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Funder: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
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