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Dynamics of infectious diseases

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Rock, Kat S., Brand, Samuel, Moir, Jo and Keeling, Matthew James (2014) Dynamics of infectious diseases. Reports on Progress in Physics, Volume 77 (Number 2). Article number 026602. doi:10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602

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Abstract

Modern infectious disease epidemiology has a strong history of using mathematics both for prediction and to gain a deeper understanding. However the study of infectious diseases is a highly interdisciplinary subject requiring insights from multiple disciplines, in particular a biological knowledge of the pathogen, a statistical description of the available data and a mathematical framework for prediction. Here we begin with the basic building blocks of infectious disease epidemiology—the SIS and SIR type models—before considering the progress that has been made over the recent decades and the challenges that lie ahead. Throughout we focus on the understanding that can be developed from relatively simple models, although accurate prediction will inevitably require far greater complexity beyond the scope of this review. In particular, we focus on three critical aspects of infectious disease models that we feel fundamentally shape their dynamics: heterogeneously structured populations, stochasticity and spatial structure. Throughout we relate the mathematical models and their results to a variety of real-world problems.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QR Microbiology
Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Communicable diseases -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models, Immunology -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Reports on Progress in Physics
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd.
ISSN: 0034-4885
Official Date: 20 January 2014
Dates:
DateEvent
20 January 2014Published
29 November 2013Accepted
6 March 2013Submitted
Volume: Volume 77
Number: Number 2
Article Number: Article number 026602
DOI: 10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

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