Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Statistics
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

Stewart, Neil, 1974-, Chater, Nick, Stott , Henry P. and Reimers, Stian. (2003) Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, Vol.132 (No.1). pp. 23-46. ISSN 0096-3445

[img]
Preview
PDF
WRAP_STewart_prospect_relativity.pdf - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader

Download (371Kb)
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0096-3445.132.1.23

Abstract

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Psychology
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Choice (Psychology), Risk -- Decision making, Decision making -- Testing, Multiple criteria decision making
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Experimental Psychology: General
Publisher: American Psychological Association
ISSN: 0096-3445
Date: March 2003
Volume: Vol.132
Number: No.1
Page Range: pp. 23-46
Identification Number: 10.1037/0096-3445.132.1.23
Status: Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), Oliver, Wyman & Company (OWCo.), European Commission (EC)
Grant number: R000239351 (ESRC), RTN-HPRN-CT-1999-00065 (EC)
References: 1. Akerlof, G. & Yellen, J. (1985). Can small deviations from rationality make significant differences to economic equilibria. The American Economic Review, 75, 708-720. 2. Arrow, K. J. (1971). Essays in the theory of risk-bearing. Chicago: Markham. 3. Baron, J. (2000). Thinking and deciding (3rd ed.). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. 4. Becker, G. M., DeGroot, M. H. & Marschak, J. (1964). Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method. Behavioral Science, 9, 226-232. 5. Bell, D. E. & Fishburn, P. C. (1999). Utility functions for wealth. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 20, 5-44. 6. Birnbaum, M. H. (1992). Violations of monotonicity and contextual effects in choice-based certainty equivalents. Psychological Science, 3, 310-314. 7. Birnbaum, M. H., Patton, J. N. & Lott, M. K. (1999). Evidence against rank-dependent utility theories: Tests of cumulative independence, interval independence, stochastic dominance, and transitivity. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 77, 44-83. 8. Bostic, R., Herrnstein, R. J. & Luce, R. D. (1990). The effect of preference-reversal phenomenon of using choice indifferences. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 13, 193-212. 9. Busemeyer, J. R. & Townsend, J. T. (1993). Decision field theory: A dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment. Psychological Review, 100, 432-459. 10. Camerer, C. F. (1995). Individual decision making. In J. Kagel & A. E. Roth (Eds.), Handbook of experimental economics (pp. 587-703). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 11. Chapman, G. B. & Johnson, E. J. (1994). The limits of anchoring. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, 223-242. 12. Christenfeld, N. (1995). Choices from identical options. Psychological Science, 6, 50-55. 13. Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. 14. Cohen, M., Jaffray, J. & Said, T. (1987). Experimental comparisons of individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty for gains and losses. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 39, 1-22. 15. Cummings, R. G., Brookshire, D. S., & Schulzze, W. D. (Eds.). (1986). Valuing environmental goods: A state of the arts assessment of the contingent method. Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Allanheld. 16. Cyert, R. & de Groot, M. (1974). Rational expectations and Bayesian analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 82, 521-536. 17. de Canio, S. (1979). Rational expectations and learning from experience. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93, 47-57. 18. Diecidue, E. & Wakker, P. P. (2001). On the intuition of rank-dependent utility. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 23, 281-298. 19. Fishburn, P. C. & Kochenberger, G. A. (1979). Two-piece von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions. Decision Sciences, 10, 503-518. 20. Friedman, M. (1953). Essays in positive economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 21. Friedman, M. & Savage, L. J. (1948). The utility analysis of choices involving risks. Journal of Political Economy, 56, 279-304. 22. Garner, W. R. (1953). An informational analysis of absolute judgments of loudness. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 46, 373-380. 23. Garner, W. R. (1954). Context effects and the validity of loudness scales. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 48, 218-224. 24. Gonzalez-Vallejo, C. (2002). Making trade-offs: A probabilistic and context-sensitive model of choice behavior. Psychological Review, 109, 137-154. 25. Grether, D. M. & Plott, C. R. (1979). Economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomena. The American Economic Review, 38, 129-166. 26. Grice, H. P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In P. Cole & J. L. Morgan (Eds.), Syntax and semantics: Vol. 3. Speech acts (pp. 41-58). New York: Academic Press. 27. Hershey, J. C. & Schoemaker, P. J. (1985). Probability versus certainty equivalence methods in utility measurement: Are they equivalent. Management Science, 31, 1213-1231. 28. Hertwig, R. & Ortmann, A. (2001). Experimental practices in economics: A methodological challenge for psychologists. Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 24, 383-451. 29. Holland, M. K. & Lockhead, G. R. (1968). Sequential effects in absolute judgments of loudness. Perception & Psychophysics, 3, 409-414. 30. Hsee, C. K., Loewenstein, G. F., Blount, S. & Bazerman, M. H. (1999). Preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of options: A review and theoretical analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 125, 576-590. 31. Hu, G. (1997). Why is it difficult to learn absolute judgment tasks. Perceptual & Motor Skills, 84, 323-335. 32. Huber, J., Payne, J. W. & Puto, C. (1982). Adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives: Violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis. Journal of Consumer Research, 9, 90-98. 33. Jacowitz, K. E. & Kahneman, D. (1995). Measures of anchoring in estimation tasks. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 1161-1166. 34. Janiszewski, C. & Lichtenstein, D. R. (1999). A range theory account of price perception. Journal of Consumer Research, 25, 353-368. 35. Jesteadt, W., Luce, R. D. & Green, D. M. (1977). Sequential effects of the judgments of loudness. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance, 3, 92-104. 36. Kagel, J. H., & Roth, A. E. (Eds.). (1995). The handbook of experimental economics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 37. Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291. 38. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (2000). Choices, values and frames. New York: Cambridge University Press & the Russell Sage Foundation. 39. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press. 40. Lacouture, Y. (1997). Bow, range, and sequential effects in absolute identification: A response-time analysis. Psychological Research, 60, 121-133. 41. Laming, D. R. (1984). The relativity of "absolute" judgements. British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology, 37, 152-183. 42. Laming, D. R. (1997). The measurement of sensation. London: Oxford University Press. 43. Levinson, S. C. (1983). Pragmatics. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. 44. Lichtenstein, S. & Slovic, P. (1971). Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 89, 46-55. 45. Lichtenstein, S. & Slovic, P. (1973). Response induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in Las Vegas. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 101, 16-20. 46. Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P. & Zink, D. (1969). Effects of instructions in expected value on optimality of gambling decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 79, 236-240. 47. Lockhead, G. R. (1984). Sequential predictors of choice in psychophysical tasks. In S. Kornblum & J. Requin (Eds.), Preparatory states and processes (pp. 27-47). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. 48. Lockhead, G. R. & King, M. C. (1983). A memory model of sequential effects in scaling tasks. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance, 9, 461-473. 49. Long, L. (1937). A study of the effect of preceding stimuli upon the judgment of auditory intensities. Archives of Psychology (New York), 30, 209. 50. Loomes, G. (1988). Different experimental procedures for obtaining valuations for risky actions: Implications for utility theory. Theory & Decision, 25, 1-23. 51. Loomes, G. & Sugden, R. (1982). Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal, 92, 805-824. 52. Luce, R. D. (2000). Utility of gains and losses: Measurement -theoretical and experimental approaches. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. 53. Luce, R. D., Nosofsky, R. M., Green, D. M. & Smith, A. F. (1982). The bow and sequential effects in absolute identification. Perception & Psychophysics, 32, 397-408. 54. MacCrimmon, K. R., Stanbury, W. T., & Wehrung, D. A. (1980). Real money lotteries: A study of ideal risk, context effects, and simple processes. In T. S. Wallsten (Ed.), Cognitive process in choice and decision behavior (pp. 155-177). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. 55. Mellers, B. A., Ordonez, L. D. & Birnbaum, M. H. (1992). A change-of-process theory for contextual effects and preference reversals in risky decision making. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 52, 311-369. 56. Mitchell, R. C., & Carson, R. T. (1989). Using surveys to value public goods: The contingent valuation method. Washington DC: Resources for the Future. 57. Mussweiler, T. & Strack, F. (1999). Hypothesis -consistent testing and semantic priming in the anchoring paradigm: A selective accessibility model. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 35, 136-164. 58. Mussweiler, T. & Strack, F. (2000). Numeric judgments under uncertainty: The role of knowledge in anchoring. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 36, 495-518. 59. Mussweiler, T. & Strack, F. (2001). Considering the impossible: Explaining the effects of implausible anchors. Social Cognition, 19, 145-160. 60. Mussweiler, T. & Strack, F. (2001). The semantics of anchoring. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 86, 234-255. 61. Nelson, R., & Winter, S. (1982). An evolutionary theory of economic capabilities and behavior. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 62. Parducci, A. (1965). Category judgment: A range-frequency theory. Psychological Review, 72, 407-418. 63. Parducci, A. (1974). Contextual effects: A range-frequency analysis. Handbook of perception, 2, 127-141. 64. Purks, S. R., Callahan, D. J., Braida, L. D. & Durlach, N. I. (1980). Intensity perception X. Effect of preceding stimulus on identification performance. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 67, 634-637. 65. Quiggin, J. (1982). A theory of anticipated utility. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organisation, 3, 323-343. 66. Quiggin, J. (1993). Generalized expected utility theory: The rank-dependent model. Boston: Kluwer Academic. 67. Quiggin, J. (1994). Regret theory with general choice sets. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 8, 153-165. 68. Roe, R. M., Busemeyer, J. R. & Townsend, J. T. (2001). Multialternative decision field theory: A dynamic connectionist model of decision making. Psychological Review, 108, 370-392. 69. Schoemaker, P. J. (1982). The expected utility model: Its variants, purposes, evidence, and limitations. Journal of Economic Literature, 20, 529-563. 70. Schwarz, N. (1994). A judgment in a social context: Biases; shortcomings, and the logic of conversation. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 26, 123-162. 71. Schwarz, N., Hippler, H. J., Deutsch, B. & Strack, F. (1985). Response scales: Effects of category range on reported behavior and subsequent judgments. Public Opinion Quarterly, 49, 388-395. 72. Shafir, E. & LeBoeuf, R. A. (2002). Rationality. Annual Review of Psychology, 53, 491-517. 73. Simon, H. A. (1959). Theories of decision-making in economics and behavioral science. The American Economic Review, 49, 253-283. 74. Simon, H. A. (1992). Economics, bounded rationality and the cognitive revolution. Aldershot, England: Elgar. 75. Simonson, I. (1989). Choice based on reasons: The case of attraction and compromise effects. Journal of Consumer Research, 16, 158-174. 76. Simonson, I. & Tversky, A. (1992). Choice in context: Tradeoff contrast and extremeness aversion. Journal of Marketing Research, 29, 281-295. 77. Slovic, P. (1995). The construction of preference. American Psychologist, 50, 364-371. 78. Slovic, P., & Monahan, J. (2000). Probability, danger, and coercion. In P. Slovic (Ed.)., The perception of risk (pp. 347-363). London: Earthscan. 79. Staddon, J. E., King, M. & Lockhead, G. R. (1980). On sequential effects in absolute judgment experiments. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance, 6, 290-301. 80. Stevens, S. S. (1975). Psychophysics. New York: Wiley. 81. Stewart, N. (2001). Perceptual categorization. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Warwick, Coventry, England. 82. Stewart, N., Brown, G. D. A., & Chater, N. (2002a). Identification of simple perceptual stimuli: A new model of absolute identification. Manuscript submitted for publication. 83. Stewart, N., Brown, G. D. & Chater, N. (2002). Sequence effects in categorization of simple perceptual stimuli. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition, 28, 3-11. 84. Strack, F. & Mussweiler, T. (1997). Explaining the enigmatic anchoring effect: Mechanisms of selective accessibility. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 73, 437-446. 85. Tversky, A. (1972). Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. Psychological Review, 79, 281-299. 86. Tversky, A. & Fox, C. R. (1995). Weighting risk and uncertainty. Psychological Review, 102, 269-283. 87. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131. 88. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 204-217. 89. Tversky, A. & Simonson, I. (1993). Context-dependent preferences. Management Science, 39, 1179-1189. 90. Tversky, A., Sattath, S. & Slovic, P. (1988). Contingent weighting in judgment and choice. Psychological Review, 95, 371-384. 91. Tversky, A., Slovic, P. & Kahneman, D. (1990). The cause of preference reversal. The American Economic Review, 80, 204-217. 92. von Neumann, M., & Morgenstern, O. (1947). Theory of games and economic behavior (2nd ed.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 93. Ward, L. M. & Lockhead, G. R. (1970). Sequential effect and memory in category judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 84, 27-34. 94. Ward, L. M. & Lockhead, G. R. (1971). Response system processes in absolute judgment. Perception & Psychophysics, 9, 73-78. 95. Wernerfelt, T. (1995). A rational reconstruction of the compromise effect: Using market data to infer utilities. Journal of Consumer Research, 21, 627-633. 96. Wong, K. F. & Kwong, J. Y. (2000). Is 7300 m equal to 7.3 km? Same semantics but different anchoring effects. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 82, 314-333.
URI: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/620

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

Request changes to a record

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

More statistics for this item...
twitter

Email us: publications@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us