Sanborn, Adam N., Hills, Thomas Trenholm, Dougherty, Michael R., Thomas, Rick P., Yu, Erica C. and Sprenger, Amber M. (2014) Reply to Rouder (2014) : good frequentist properties raise confidence. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , Volume 21 (Number 2). pp. 309-311. doi:10.3758/s13423-014-0607-4

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Abstract

Established psychological results have been called into question by demonstrations that statistical significance is easy to achieve, even in the absence of an effect. One often-warned-against practice, choosing when to stop the experiment on the basis of the results, is guaranteed to produce significant results. In response to these demonstrations, Bayes factors have been proposed as an antidote to this practice, because they are invariant with respect to how an experiment was stopped. Should researchers only care about the resulting Bayes factor, without concern for how it was produced? Yu, Sprenger, Thomas, and Dougherty (2014) and Sanborn and Hills (2014) demonstrated that Bayes factors are sometimes strongly influenced by the stopping rules used. However, Rouder (2014) has provided a compelling demonstration that despite this influence, the evidence supplied by Bayes factors remains correct. Here we address why the ability to influence Bayes factors should still matter to researchers, despite the correctness of the evidence. We argue that good frequentist properties mean that results will more often agree with researchers’ statistical intuitions, and good frequentist properties control the number of studies that will later be refuted. Both help raise confidence in psychological results.

Item Type:	Journal Item
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Bayesian statistical decision theory , Mathematical statistics , Probabilities, Statistical hypothesis testing
Journal or Publication Title:	Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
Publisher:	Psychonomic Society
ISSN:	1069-9384
Official Date:	2014
Dates:	Date Event 2014 Published
Volume:	Volume 21
Number:	Number 2
Page Range:	pp. 309-311
DOI:	10.3758/s13423-014-0607-4
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit:	6 April 2017
Date of first compliant Open Access:	6 April 2017

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