Bhagooli, R. and Sheppard, Charles (Charles R. C.) (2012) Prediction of recurrences of mass coral bleaching / mortality and vulnerability of reef-building corals to climate change in Mauritian and Japanese waters. University of Mauritius research journal, Volume 18A . pp. 105-121.

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Abstract

The bleaching / mortality response and prediction of recurrences of mass coral mortality in Japanese and Mauritian reef-building corals caused by climate change have yet to be explored thoroughly and incorporated into appropriate conservation and adaptive management strategies. We model likely “extinction dates” of live reefs from Okinawa and Ishigaki Islands of Japan, and one from Mauritius using historical and predicted surface seawater temperature (SST) data. Modelling of forecast SSTs at the two Japanese sites, where differential bleaching / mortalities occurred in 1998, revealed extinction dates of yrs 2000 - 2010 and 2070 - 2080 for Okinawan and Ishigaki reefs, respectively. On the other hand coral reefs of
Mauritius escaped the severe warming in 1998, most probably due to the massive cloud cover during the critical month. Based on the warmest temperature being about 28.7 that year (Hadisst data) (which did not cause mass bleaching) similar recurrence would occur about 2025.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Journal or Publication Title:	University of Mauritius research journal
Publisher:	University of Mauritius
Official Date:	2012
Dates:	Date Event 2012 Published 24 March 2012 Accepted
Volume:	Volume 18A
Page Range:	pp. 105-121
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published

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