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Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models

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Roberts, Mick G., Andreasen, Viggo, Lloyd, Alun and Pellis, Lorenzo (2015) Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models. Epidemics, 10 . pp. 49-53. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.006

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.006

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Abstract

Deterministic models have a long history of being applied to the study of infectious disease epidemiology. We highlight and discuss nine challenges in this area. The first two concern the endemic equilibrium and its stability. We indicate the need for models that describe multi-strain infections, infections with time-varying infectivity, and those where superinfection is possible. We then consider the need for advances in spatial epidemic models, and draw attention to the lack of models that explore the relationship between communicable and non-communicable diseases. The final two challenges concern the uses and limitations of deterministic models as approximations to stochastic systems.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Epidemics, Epidemiology
Journal or Publication Title: Epidemics
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 1755-4365
Official Date: March 2015
Dates:
DateEvent
March 2015Published
27 September 2014Available
16 September 2014Accepted
26 February 2014Submitted
Volume: 10
Number of Pages: 5
Page Range: pp. 49-53
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.006
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Royal Society of New Zealand, United States. Department of Homeland Security. Science and Technology Directorate, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant number: MAU1106 (RSNZ), R01-AI091980 (NIH), RTG/DMS-1246991 (NSF)

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