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Revisiting Francis Galton’s forecasting competition
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Wallis, Kenneth Frank (2014) Revisiting Francis Galton’s forecasting competition. Statistical Science, Volume 29 (Number 3). pp. 420-424. doi:10.1214/14-STS468 ISSN 0883-4237.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-STS468
Abstract
This note reexamines the data from a weight-judging competition described in an article by Francis Galton published in 1907. Following the correction of some errors, it is shown that this forecasting competition is an interesting precursor of two more recent developments in the statistical forecasting literature. One is forecast combination, with the mean forecast here exactly coinciding with the outcome, and the second is the use of two-piece frequency and probability distributions to describe asymmetry.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Statistical Science | ||||
Publisher: | American Institute of Mathematical Statistics | ||||
ISSN: | 0883-4237 | ||||
Official Date: | 2014 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 29 | ||||
Number: | Number 3 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 420-424 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1214/14-STS468 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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