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Bayesian epidemic risk prediction-knowledge transfer and usability at all levels
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Jewell, Chris P., Brown, J., Keeling, Matthew James, Green, L. and Roberts, Gareth O. (2013) Bayesian epidemic risk prediction-knowledge transfer and usability at all levels. In: Society of Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine Annual Meeting, Madrid, Spain, 20-22 Mar 2013. Published in: Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine pp. 127-142.
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Abstract
Recent advances in Bayesian inference have provided a powerful solution for harnessing epidemic models for decision support during livestock epidemics. However, efficient fitting algorithms for complex epidemic models are difficult to implement. Hand-coded algorithms are required for each application, requiring sophisticated techniques for ensuring reliable estimation of the parameter posterior distributions. Moreover, the complex analysis output may be difficult to interpret, reducing the utility of the approach when fast, clear results are required. This paper presents an integrated approach to risk prediction, focusing on making Bayesian analysis for epidemics accessible to users at different levels: a web-based GIS interface for the policy maker, an R package for the epidemiologist, and a C++ interface for the statistician. To demonstrate how these levels work in concert, an analysis of the 2001 UK foot and mouth outbreak is presented, extending established models to investigate for the first time the role of pig farms.
Item Type: | Conference Item (Paper) | ||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine | ||||
Official Date: | 2013 | ||||
Dates: |
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Page Range: | pp. 127-142 | ||||
Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Conference Paper Type: | Paper | ||||
Title of Event: | Society of Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine Annual Meeting | ||||
Type of Event: | Conference | ||||
Location of Event: | Madrid, Spain | ||||
Date(s) of Event: | 20-22 Mar 2013 | ||||
Related URLs: |
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