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Contact tracing strategies in heterogeneous populations

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Eames, Ken T. D.. (2006) Contact tracing strategies in heterogeneous populations. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.13 (No.3). pp. 443-454. ISSN 0950-2688

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268806006923

Abstract

Contact tracing is a well-established disease control measure that seeks to uncover cases by following chains of infection. This paper examines mathematical models of both single-step and iterative contact tracing schemes and analyses the ability of these procedures to trace core groups and the sensitivity of the intervention to the timescale of tracing. An iterative tracing process is shown to be particularly effective at uncovering high-risk individuals, and thus it provides a powerful public health tool. Further targeting of tracing effort is considered. When the population exhibits like-with-like (assortative) mixing the required effort for eradication can be significantly reduced by preferentially tracing the contacts of high-risk individuals; in populations where individuals have reliable information about their contacts, further gains in efficiency can be realized. Contact tracing is, therefore, potentially an even more potent tool than its present usage suggests.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RB Pathology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Epidemiology -- Research, Vector control, Public health surveillance, Medicine -- Research -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title:	Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	0950-2688
Date:	19 July 2006
Volume:	Vol.13
Number:	No.3
Page Range:	pp. 443-454
Identification Number:	10.1017/S0950268806006923
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC), Emmanuel College (University of Cambridge)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/655