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Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
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Britton, Tom, House, Thomas A., Lloyd, Alun L., Mollison, Denis, Riley, Steven and Trapman, Pieter (2015) Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission. Epidemics, Volume 10 . pp. 54-57. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002
Abstract
The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Mathematics | ||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Epidemics -- Mathematical models | ||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemics | ||||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier BV | ||||||||||
| ISSN: | 1755-4365 | ||||||||||
| Official Date: | March 2015 | ||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volume 10 | ||||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 54-57 | ||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002 | ||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||||
| Funder: | Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Sweden. Vetenskapsrådet [Research Council], Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), United States. Department of Homeland Security. Science and Technology Directorate, Fogarty International Center. Research and Policy in Infectious Disease Dynamics Programme (RAPIDD), National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF), Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC) | ||||||||||
| Grant number: | R01-AI091980 (NIH), RTG/DMS-1246991 (NSF), 093488/Z/10/Z (WT), R01 TW008246-01 (Fogarty), MR/J008761/1 (MRC), 20105873 (SRC) |
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