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Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world : modelling disease spread with partial data
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Dawson, Peter Michael, Werkman, Marleen, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen and Tildesley, Michael J. (2015) Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world : modelling disease spread with partial data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume 282 (Number 1808). Article number 20150205. doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.0205 ISSN 0962-8452.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0205
Abstract
‘Big-data’ epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Centre for Complexity Science Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Epidemiology, Communicable diseases in animals, Foot-and-mouth disease, Livestock -- Diseases -- Prevention, Animal health -- Economic aspects, Computational biology -- Research | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | ||||||||
Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||||||
ISSN: | 0962-8452 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 6 May 2015 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 282 | ||||||||
Number: | Number 1808 | ||||||||
Article Number: | Article number 20150205 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1098/rspb.2015.0205 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 28 July 2016 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 28 July 2016 | ||||||||
Funder: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Great Britain) (BBSRC), Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics Program, US Department of Homeland Security | ||||||||
Grant number: | BB/ K010972/3), ST-108-000017 |
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