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The use of RAS and related models in manpower forecasting
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Evans, Graham J. and Lindley, Robert M. (1973) The use of RAS and related models in manpower forecasting. Economics of Planning , Volume 13 (Number 1-2). pp. 53-73. doi:10.1007/BF00410551
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00410551
Abstract
With the increasing availability of statistics describing the occupational structures of different industries manpower forecasters are beginning to develop more sophisticated models. The economic rationale of such models has tended to be obscured by the mathematics involved and an understandable eagerness to put the data to use in forecasting. In addition, the systematic testing of the explanatory power of these models has been neglected where it has not been hampered by the shortage of data series. The RAS model has featured prominently in manpower discussions and this paper attempts an evaluation of its predictive ability and economic interpretation subject to the limits imposed by the data available for the British engineering industry. It is argued that such a model plays a useful initial role in the development of models for sectoral manpower forecasting but must lead on to a more sensitive treatment of the labour market and the decision problem of investing in human capital.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Employment Research | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Manpower -- Great Britain -- 1960s, Labor supply -- Forecasting , Engineers -- Education -- History | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Economics of Planning | ||||
| Publisher: | Springer New York LLC | ||||
| ISSN: | 1573-9414 | ||||
| Official Date: | 1973 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volume 13 | ||||
| Number: | Number 1-2 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 21 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 53-73 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1007/BF00410551 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
| Funder: | Engineering Industry Training Board |
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