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The use of RAS and related models in manpower forecasting

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Evans, Graham J. and Lindley, Robert M. (1973) The use of RAS and related models in manpower forecasting. Economics of Planning , Volume 13 (Number 1-2). pp. 53-73. doi:10.1007/BF00410551 ISSN 1573-9414.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00410551

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Abstract

With the increasing availability of statistics describing the occupational structures of different industries manpower forecasters are beginning to develop more sophisticated models. The economic rationale of such models has tended to be obscured by the mathematics involved and an understandable eagerness to put the data to use in forecasting. In addition, the systematic testing of the explanatory power of these models has been neglected where it has not been hampered by the shortage of data series. The RAS model has featured prominently in manpower discussions and this paper attempts an evaluation of its predictive ability and economic interpretation subject to the limits imposed by the data available for the British engineering industry. It is argued that such a model plays a useful initial role in the development of models for sectoral manpower forecasting but must lead on to a more sensitive treatment of the labour market and the decision problem of investing in human capital.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Employment Research
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Manpower -- Great Britain -- 1960s, Labor supply -- Forecasting , Engineers -- Education -- History
Journal or Publication Title: Economics of Planning
Publisher: Springer New York LLC
ISSN: 1573-9414
Official Date: 1973
Dates:
DateEvent
1973Published
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 1-2
Number of Pages: 21
Page Range: pp. 53-73
DOI: 10.1007/BF00410551
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder: Engineering Industry Training Board

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