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Expectations as reference points : field evidence from professional soccer
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Bartling, Björn, Brandes, Leif and Schunk, Daniel (2015) Expectations as reference points : field evidence from professional soccer. Management Science, 61 (11). 2646 -2661. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2014.2048 ISSN 0025-1909.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2048
Abstract
We show that professional soccer players and their coaches exhibit reference-dependent behavior during matches. Controlling for the state of the match and for unobserved heterogeneity, we show on a minute-by-minute basis that players breach the rules of the game, measured by the referee’s assignment of cards, significantly more often if their teams are behind the expected match outcome, measured by preplay betting odds of large professional bookmakers. We further show that coaches implement significantly more offensive substitutions if their teams are behind expectations. Both types of behaviors impair the expected ultimate match outcome of the team, which shows that our findings do not simply reflect fully rational responses to reference-dependent incentive schemes of favorite teams to falling behind. We derive these results in a data set that contains more than 8,200 matches from 12 seasons of the German Bundesliga and 12 seasons of the English Premier League.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||
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Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BD Speculative Philosophy B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HF Commerce H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Marketing Group Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Rational expectations (Economic theory), Experience , Competition, Risk-taking (Psychology), Behavioral assessment | ||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Management Science | ||||||||||
Publisher: | Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (I N F O R M S) | ||||||||||
ISSN: | 0025-1909 | ||||||||||
Official Date: | November 2015 | ||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 61 | ||||||||||
Number: | 11 | ||||||||||
Page Range: | 2646 -2661 | ||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1287/mnsc.2014.2048 | ||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 30 January 2016 | ||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 24 May 2016 | ||||||||||
Adapted As: |
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