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Subjective Bayesian beliefs

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Antoniou, Constantinos, Harrison, Glenn W., Lau, Morten I. and Read, Daniel (2015) Subjective Bayesian beliefs. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 50 (1). pp. 35-54. doi:10.1007/s11166-015-9208-5

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-015-9208-5

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Abstract

A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science
Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Finance Group
Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Global Energy
Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Bayesian statistical decision theory, Risk, Uncertainty, Experimental economics
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Publisher: Springer New York LLC
ISSN: 0895-5646
Official Date: 21 February 2015
Dates:
DateEvent
21 February 2015Published
18 February 2014Accepted
Volume: 50
Number: 1
Page Range: pp. 35-54
DOI: 10.1007/s11166-015-9208-5
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access

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