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Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks

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Pellis, Lorenzo, Spencer, Simon E. F. and House, Thomas A. (2015) Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks. Mathematical Biosciences, 265 . pp. 65-81. doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2015.04.006

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2015.04.006

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Abstract

Networks have become an important tool for infectious disease epidemiology. Most previous theoretical studies of transmission network models have either considered simple Markovian dynamics at the individual level, or have focused on the invasion threshold and final outcome of the epidemic. Here, we provide a general theory for early real-time behaviour of epidemics on large configuration model networks (i.e. static and locally unclustered), in particular focusing on the computation of the Malthusian parameter that describes the early exponential epidemic growth. Analytical, numerical and Monte-Carlo methods under a wide variety of Markovian and non-Markovian assumptions about the infectivity profile are presented. Numerous examples provide explicit quantification of the impact of the network structure on the temporal dynamics of the spread of infection and provide a benchmark for validating results of large scale simulations

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Epidemiology -- Mathematical models, Epidemiology -- Statistical methods, Stochastic analysis, Branching processes
Journal or Publication Title: Mathematical Biosciences
Publisher: Elsevier Science Inc.
ISSN: 0025-5564
Official Date: June 2015
Dates:
DateEvent
June 2015Published
24 April 2015Available
16 April 2015Accepted
26 November 2014Submitted
Volume: 265
Page Range: pp. 65-81
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2015.04.006
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

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